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Prediction for CME (2022-04-11T06:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-04-11T06:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19735/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. The source is a C1.6 flare and eruption from an unnumbered region around S15E05. The eruption starts around 2022-04-11T05:00Z and is characterized by an EUV wave and dimming that is best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption can also be seen in SDO AIA 304. The eruption is visible in the SW quadrant of STEREO A EUVI imagery. As for the arrival, solar wind speed increased from ~400 km/s at 2022-04-14T03:00Z to 480 km/s at 09:20Z. Magnetic field components increase around 03:30Z with Btotal exceeding 10nT at 08:43Z, likely from the flux rope arrival. Density shows a gradual increase beginning at 03:30Z as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-14T03:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-14T12:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-04-11T12:50Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 500
Longitude (deg): E05
Latitude (deg): S05
Half-angular width (deg): 54

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton

Lead Time: 58.58 hour(s)
Difference: -8.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-04-11T17:02Z

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